CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-03-10T12:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-03-10T12:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29526/-1
CME Note: Super faint partial halo CME seen to the WNW in a few early image frame of coronagraphs, with the source possibly the short-duration M7.4 class flare from AR 3599 (S13W35) and the associated dimming seen north and even NE of this AR in AIA 193/EUVI A 195 starting after 2024-03-10T12:15Z. This faint CME is mostly seen in difference imagery in a few early frames in SOHO LASCO C2, even more faintly in COR2A and is not seen in C3. No CME arrival signature in solar wind.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-13T23:40Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2024 Mar 11 1232 UTC #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 40311 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Mar 2024, 1231UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given) PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Mar 2024 10CM FLUX: 127 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Mar 2024 10CM FLUX: 127 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Mar 2024 10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 016 ... Coronal mass ejections: The M7.4 flare from NOAA AR 3599 was related to dimmings and an EUV wave and CME directed towards the west. The CME was not very wide (apparent angular width of about 70 degrees) and speed close to 500 km/s. We may see a glancing blow of this CME on 13 March. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours. ...Lead Time: 60.33 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2024-03-11T11:20Z
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